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Advance Auto Parts

AAP
22
Specialty Retail · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$53.16
+0.03 (+0.06%)
Market Cap
$3.21B
Winston Score
22
Winston is worried
Weak fundamentals across most pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

6.1% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 64.5M (2022) → 60.6M (2026)

Advance Auto Parts sells car parts, tools, and accessories to everyday drivers and professional mechanics. Its stores carry things like batteries, brakes, oil filters, and engine parts — the kind of items people need when a car breaks down or needs routine maintenance. The company operates thousands of retail locations across the United States, making it one of the largest auto parts retailers in the country.

The company earns money through in-store and online sales, serving both do-it-yourself customers and commercial accounts like repair shops. It competes directly with AutoZone and O'Reilly Automotive, two rivals that have historically been more profitable and operationally efficient. Advance Auto Parts has been working through a turnaround effort after years of underperformance, closing underperforming stores and cutting costs — but with an operating margin of just 3.2% and a low return on invested capital, execution risk remains the central challenge facing the business.

Winston Score History

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue data limited

EPS Growth

YoY Growth Rate

EPS data limited

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.5%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Runway

5+ years

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

$3.1B cash & investments at current burn rate

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
44.0%
Healthy — 44.0% gross margin
Operating Margin
3.4%
Thin — 3.4% operating margin
ROCE
1.2%
Weak — 1.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-5.4%
Shrinking sales (-5.4% YoY)
EPS YoY
N/A
Data not available
EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
-105%
Weak — only -105% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
-3.5%
Burning cash (-3.5%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.55
Elevated debt (1.55)
Interest Cover
1.16x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.2x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
72.5x
Expensive — P/E 72.5

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+60.1
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (72.5 → 12.3)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.66%
Small dividend — 1.66% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+0.0%
Dividend flat

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