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Advanced Drainage Systems

WMS
46
Construction · Industrials
Price
$147.55
-3.73 (-2.47%)
Market Cap
$11.30B
Winston Score
46
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+7.6% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 72.9M (2022) → 78.5M (2026)

Advanced Drainage Systems (ADS) makes plastic pipes and drainage products used to move water away from roads, farms, and buildings. Their main products are corrugated plastic pipes and stormwater management systems, sold to construction contractors, farmers, and government agencies. ADS is the largest manufacturer of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) drainage pipe in North America.

The company sells its products directly and through a network of distributors and home improvement retailers, generating revenue each time a pipe or drainage system is purchased. ADS operates primarily in the United States, with some presence in Canada and internationally, and generates roughly $2.5 billion in annual revenue. Its competitive edge comes from its massive manufacturing footprint, recycled material sourcing, and deep distributor relationships that are hard for smaller rivals to replicate. The key risk is that demand for drainage products is closely tied to construction activity, meaning a slowdown in housing or infrastructure spending could meaningfully hurt sales.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-5.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-18.9% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

7.0%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

5+ years

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

$463M cash & investments at current burn rate

Revenue declining

Advanced Drainage Systems's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
36.7%
Modest — 36.7% gross margin
Operating Margin
19.0%
Healthy — 19.0% operating margin
ROCE
4.1%
Weak — 4.1% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+1.6%
Nearly flat sales (1.6% YoY)
EPS YoY
+0.3%
Flat earnings

Single-digit earnings growth — steady but not exciting.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
174%
Turns 174% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
19.3%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (19.3%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.78
Moderate — manageable debt (0.78)
Interest Cover
7.47x
Adequate interest coverage (7.5x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
24.4x
Growth-priced — P/E 24.4

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
+0.9
GROWING
Earnings roughly flat

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
0.50%
Small dividend — 0.50% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+12.1%
Dividend growing fast (12.1% YoY)

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