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American Financial Group

AFG
60
Insurance - Property & Casualty · Financial Services
Price
$141.89
+1.96 (+1.40%)
Market Cap
$11.79B
Winston Score
60
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Share count falling — buybacks

2.5% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 85.6M (2021) → 83.5M (2025)

American Financial Group is an insurance company based in Cincinnati, Ohio. It sells specialty property and casualty insurance, which means it covers unusual or complex risks that standard insurers often avoid. Its main customers are businesses, not individuals — think farms, transportation companies, and manufacturers who need coverage for specific equipment, crops, or liability.

The company makes money by collecting insurance premiums from policyholders and investing that cash while waiting to pay out claims. AFG operates mostly in the United States and has a market value of around $10.7 billion. Its competitive edge comes from focusing on niche commercial markets where it has deep expertise and less direct competition from large generalist insurers. The main risk the business faces is a spike in large insurance claims — from natural disasters or economic disruptions — which can quickly erode profits, since the company must pay out more than it collected in premiums.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

7 trades / 12mo

3 Congressional buys and 4 sells on AFG in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
51.1%
Healthy — 51.1% gross margin
Operating Margin
12.9%
Healthy — 12.9% operating margin
ROCE
3.7%
Weak — 3.7% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-1.1%
Shrinking sales (-1.1% YoY)
EPS YoY
+10.3%
Earnings growing (10.3% YoY)

Healthy double-digit earnings growth — what compounders look like.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
189%
Turns 189% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
19.3%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (19.3%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.39
Conservative — low debt load (0.39)
Interest Cover
13.27x
Comfortably covers interest (13.3x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
13.5x
Attractive valuation — P/E 13.5

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+1.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
4.95%
Healthy income — 4.95% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend Growth
-7.6%
Dividend cut (-7.6% YoY) — warning sign

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