AGL Energy Limited

AGLNF

Independent Power Producers · Utilities

Price

$5.56

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Market Cap

$3.74B

Exchange

Other OTC

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count rising — dilution

+8.0% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 623.0M (2021) → 672.7M (2025)

AGL Energy is one of Australia's largest electricity and gas companies. It generates power and sells it directly to homes and businesses across Australia. The company owns and operates a mix of power plants, including coal, gas, and a growing portfolio of renewable energy assets like wind and solar farms.

AGL makes money by generating electricity and then selling it to retail customers through energy plans, similar to a subscription. It also sells natural gas. The company serves roughly 4 million customer accounts, making it one of the biggest retail energy providers in Australia. Its large, established customer base and power generation assets give it some competitive stability, but its heavy reliance on aging coal-fired power stations is a significant risk. As Australia pushes toward cleaner energy, AGL faces pressure to retire coal plants and invest heavily in renewables — a costly transition that will shape the company's finances for years to come.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-1.9% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-245.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.5%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Runway

~3 years

$910M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

$910M cash & investments at current burn rate

Revenue declining

AGL Energy Limited's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

11.5%

Thin — 11.5% gross margin

Operating Margin

3.5%

Thin — 3.5% operating margin

ROCE

3.2%

Weak — 3.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+3.5%

Slow sales growth (3.5% YoY)

EPS YoY

N/A

Data not available

EPS Consistency

2/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

2164%

Turns 2164% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

1.7%

Thin free cash flow (1.7%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.63

Moderate — manageable debt (0.63)

Interest Cover

6.08x

Adequate interest coverage (6.1x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

29.3x

Growth-priced — P/E 29.3

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward

+22.1

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (29.3 → 7.1)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

5.84%

Healthy income — 5.84% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend Growth

+62.2%

Dividend growing fast (62.2% YoY)

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