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Alaska Air Group

ALK
32
Airlines, Airports & Air Services · Industrials
Winston Score
32
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Alaska Air Group owns Alaska Airlines and Horizon Air, two passenger airlines that fly people and cargo across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Costa Rica. Alaska Airlines is the fifth-largest U.S. airline by passenger volume and is especially dominant on routes along the West Coast, connecting cities like Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. In 2024, Alaska completed its acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines, expanding its reach into Hawaii and international Pacific routes.

The company makes money primarily by selling airline tickets, with additional revenue from its Mileage Plan loyalty program, cargo services, and partnerships with credit card companies. Alaska operates almost entirely in North America and generates roughly $11 billion in annual revenue. Its loyalty program and strong West Coast presence give it a competitive edge on regional routes, but airlines face constant pressure from fuel costs, labor expenses, and economic downturns — all of which can quickly turn thin operating margins negative, as the current 1.5% operating margin shows.

Winston Score History

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+5.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

-25.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

Insider Activity

0.7%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$451M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

Alaska Air Group is growing revenue at 5% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
100.0%
Premium pricing power — 100.0% gross margin
Operating Margin
-8.5%
Losing money on operations — -8.5%
ROCE
-3.1%
Weak — -3.1% return on capital

Negative ROIC means the business is losing money on every dollar invested in it.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+13.9%
Fast-growing sales (13.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
-79.8%
Earnings shrinking (-79.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
1659%
Turns 1659% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
-3.3%
Burning cash (-3.3%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.43
Elevated debt (1.43)
Interest Cover
0.83x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.8x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
82.1x
no trend
Expensive — P/E 82.1

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+76.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (82.1 → 5.8)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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