Alcoa Corporation

Aluminum · Basic Materials

Price

$43.98

-2.87 (-6.13%)

Market Cap

$11.61B

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+38.6% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 190.0M (2021) → 263.3M (2025)

Alcoa makes aluminum, one of the most widely used metals in the world. It mines bauxite ore, refines it into alumina, and then smelts it into aluminum metal. Its customers include companies in the aerospace, automotive, packaging, and construction industries.

Alcoa earns money by selling alumina and aluminum at market prices, which means its revenue rises and falls with global commodity prices. The company operates mines and smelters across North America, Europe, Australia, and South America, making it one of the largest aluminum producers in the world. Its main competitive advantage is its large, vertically integrated supply chain — it controls the process from raw ore all the way to finished metal. The biggest risk Alcoa faces is that aluminum prices are set by global markets, so a drop in demand or a surge in low-cost production from countries like China can quickly squeeze its profit margins.

Winston Score History

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin

21.3%

Thin — 21.3% gross margin

Operating Margin

17.9%

Healthy — 17.9% operating margin

ROCE

6.2%

Weak — 6.2% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-2.0%

Shrinking sales (-2.0% YoY)

EPS YoY

+19.7%

Earnings growing fast (19.7% YoY)

Healthy double-digit earnings growth — what compounders look like.

EPS Consistency

6/8 quarters

Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

91%

Modest — 91% of profit becomes cash

FCF Margin

2.3%

Thin free cash flow (2.3%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.36

Conservative — low debt load (0.36)

Interest Cover

6.02x

Adequate interest coverage (6.0x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

11.0x

Attractive valuation — P/E 11.0

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

+4.4

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (11.0 → 6.6)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

0.75%

Small dividend — 0.75% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth

+0.0%

Dividend flat

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