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Allison Transmission Holdings

ALSN
47
Auto - Parts · Consumer Cyclical
Winston Score
47
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Allison Transmission makes automatic transmissions for large vehicles like buses, garbage trucks, military vehicles, and construction equipment. The company does not make transmissions for regular passenger cars — it focuses almost entirely on heavy-duty commercial and defense vehicles. Allison is the largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles in the world.

The company sells its transmissions to vehicle manufacturers, who then build them into finished trucks and equipment sold to governments, cities, and businesses. Most revenue comes from North America, but Allison also sells in Europe, Asia, and other markets. Its moat comes from deep integration with vehicle manufacturers, long product development cycles, and the high cost of switching to a competitor's system. The main risk is that a broader shift toward electric commercial vehicles could reduce demand for traditional automatic transmissions, though Allison is developing its own electrified propulsion products to address that transition.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
47.8%
Healthy — 47.8% gross margin
Operating Margin
30.7%
Excellent — 30.7% operating margin
ROCE
4.7%
Weak — 4.7% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-6.7%
Shrinking sales (-6.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
-12.0%
Earnings shrinking (-12.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
133%
Turns 133% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
21.9%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (21.9%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.56
Elevated debt (1.56)
Interest Cover
10.16x
Comfortably covers interest (10.2x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
18.0x
no trend
Fair value — P/E 18.0

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+4.8
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (18.0 → 13.1)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
0.96%
no trend
Small dividend — 0.96% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+7.7%
no trend
Dividend growing modestly (7.7% YoY)

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