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Ameresco

AMRC
28
Engineering & Construction · Industrials
Price
$23.11
-0.48 (-2.03%)
Market Cap
$1.22B
Winston Score
28
Winston is worried
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count rising — dilution

+2.0% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 52.3M (2021) → 53.3M (2025)

Ameresco is an energy services company that helps buildings and facilities use less energy and save money. It designs and installs upgrades like LED lighting, solar panels, and efficient heating systems for schools, hospitals, government buildings, and military bases across the United States and Canada. The company is one of the larger independent energy efficiency contractors in North America.

Ameresco makes most of its money in two ways: it charges upfront fees to build and install energy projects, and it also owns some of those systems long-term, collecting recurring revenue from energy savings or power sales. The company operates mainly in the U.S., with smaller operations in Canada and the U.K., and generates roughly $1.5 billion in annual revenue. Its long-term contracts with government clients provide some stability, but the business faces real risk from rising interest rates, which make financing large infrastructure projects more expensive and can slow down new project signings.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+13.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-250.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

8.6%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~5 months

$104M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Cash watch

Ameresco has less than a year of cash at its current burn rate. Growth investors should watch for potential share dilution from future fundraising — that directly reduces your ownership.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
14.1%
Thin — 14.1% gross margin
Operating Margin
2.5%
Thin — 2.5% operating margin
ROCE
0.3%
Weak — 0.3% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+8.6%
Steady sales growth (8.6% YoY)
EPS YoY
-43.8%
Earnings shrinking (-43.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
-53%
Weak — only -53% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
-12.7%
Burning cash (-12.7%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.85
Elevated debt (1.85)
Interest Cover
1.34x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.3x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
39.2x
Pricey — P/E 39.2

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+26.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (39.2 → 12.8)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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