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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance

ARI
34
REIT - Mortgage · Real Estate
Price
$6.88
+0.05 (+0.73%)
Market Cap
$900.9M
Exchange
New York Stock Exchange
Winston Score
34
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

17.5% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 168.4M (2021) → 138.9M (2025)

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a company that lends money to real estate owners and developers. Instead of owning buildings directly, it acts like a bank — giving out loans to people who need financing for large commercial properties like office buildings, hotels, apartment complexes, and retail centers. It is managed by Apollo Global Management, one of the largest alternative asset managers in the world.

The company makes money by collecting interest on the loans it issues, primarily senior mortgage loans and mezzanine loans secured by commercial real estate. It operates mainly in the United States, with some exposure to Europe, and has a loan portfolio worth several billion dollars. Being tied to Apollo gives it access to deal flow and credit expertise that smaller lenders lack, but its main risk is credit quality — if borrowers struggle to repay loans, especially in a high-interest-rate or weak commercial real estate environment, the company's earnings and dividends can come under significant pressure.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-0.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

+0.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

1.0%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Runway

5+ years

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

$322M cash & investments at current burn rate

Revenue declining

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
23.4%
Thin — 23.4% gross margin
Operating Margin
13.0%
Healthy — 13.0% operating margin
ROCE
0.2%
Weak — 0.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+7.3%
Steady sales growth (7.3% YoY)
EPS YoY
N/A
Data not available
EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
91%
Modest — 91% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
3.9%
Thin free cash flow (3.9%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
4.50
Heavy debt load (4.50)
Interest Cover
0.85x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.8x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
8.6x
Attractive valuation — P/E 8.6

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
-6.4
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
65.41%
Healthy income — 65.41% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth
+350.0%
Dividend growing fast (350.0% YoY)

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