Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Stock Analysis & Winston Score

Arbor Realty Trust is a real estate finance company that lends money to people and businesses that own or build apartment buildings and other multifamily properties. Instead of owning buildings itself, Arbor acts like a bank — it provides loans to landlords and property developers across the United States. It is one of the larger specialty lenders focused on multifamily housing, and it is also an approved lender under government-backed programs run by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA.

Arbor makes money by collecting interest on the loans it originates and by earning fees for servicing those loans over time. It operates primarily in the U.S. and is structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT), meaning it must pay out most of its income as dividends to shareholders. Its government agency lending relationships give it a competitive edge, but rising interest rates and stress in the multifamily real estate market — including higher borrower defaults — remain the key risks facing the business.

Winston Score History

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0 Congressional buys and 2 sells on ABR in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-3.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-266.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

Insider Activity

4.2%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$12.4B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Arbor Realty Trust's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

91.6%

Premium pricing power — 91.6% gross margin

Operating Margin

68.6%

Excellent — 68.6% operating margin

ROCE

1.4%

Weak — 1.4% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+55.3%

Fast-growing sales (+55.3% YoY)

EPS YoY

-83.4%

Earnings shrinking (-83.4% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

0/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

540%

Turns 540% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

23.3%

Converts sales into free cash efficiently (23.3%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

3.99

Heavy debt load (3.99)

Interest Cover

1.18x

Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.2x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

34.3x

no trend

Pricey — P/E 34.3

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward

+19.6

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (34.3 → 14.6)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

20.68%

no trend

Healthy income — 20.68% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth

-35.6%

no trend

Dividend cut (-35.6% YoY) — warning sign

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