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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

ADM
28
Agricultural Farm Products · Consumer Defensive
Winston Score
28
Winston is worried
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is one of the largest agricultural processing companies in the world. It buys crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat from farmers, then processes them into ingredients used in food, animal feed, and fuel. Its customers include food manufacturers, livestock producers, and fuel blenders across dozens of industries.

ADM makes money by buying raw crops cheaply, processing them, and selling the finished products at a higher price — a model called "origination and processing." The company operates in over 190 countries and generates roughly $85 billion in annual revenue, giving it massive scale in global commodity supply chains. Its size and its network of grain elevators, processing plants, and transportation infrastructure are its main competitive advantages. However, ADM faces real risks from thin margins, volatile commodity prices, and an ongoing accounting investigation into its nutrition segment that has already led to leadership changes and regulatory scrutiny.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

7 trades / 12mo

2 Congressional buys and 5 sells on ADM in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
6.5%
Thin — 6.5% gross margin
Operating Margin
1.7%
Thin — 1.7% operating margin
ROCE
1.0%
Weak — 1.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-6.1%
Shrinking sales (-6.1% YoY)
EPS YoY
-39.3%
Earnings shrinking (-39.3% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
506%
Turns 506% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
5.2%
Thin free cash flow (5.2%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.37
Conservative — low debt load (0.37)
Interest Cover
1.84x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.8x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
36.8x
no trend
Pricey — P/E 36.8

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+22.8
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (36.8 → 14.0)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
2.68%
no trend
Moderate income — 2.68% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+2.0%
no trend
Dividend flat

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