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Arcos Dorados Holdings

ARCO
46
Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$8.23
-0.07 (-0.84%)
Market Cap
$1.73B
Winston Score
46
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Arcos Dorados is the largest independent McDonald's franchisee in the world. It operates and licenses McDonald's restaurants across 20 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, serving everyday consumers looking for fast food. The company runs over 2,300 locations under the McDonald's brand, covering markets like Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia.

The company makes money by selling food and drinks directly through its own restaurants, and by collecting fees from sub-franchised locations. Brazil is its biggest market and accounts for a large share of total revenue. The McDonald's brand gives Arcos Dorados strong name recognition, but the company faces real risks from currency swings across Latin America — since it reports earnings in U.S. dollars, a weaker Brazilian real or Argentine peso can significantly reduce reported profits. Expanding its digital ordering and loyalty app across the region is a key growth driver going forward.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+10.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-57.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

7.3%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$373M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

Arcos Dorados Holdings is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 11%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Share count broadly stable

+0.0% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 210.5M (2021) → 210.6M (2025)

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
14.2%
Thin — 14.2% gross margin
Operating Margin
7.5%
Modest — 7.5% operating margin
ROCE
4.7%
Weak — 4.7% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+4.7%
Slow sales growth (4.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
+39.7%
Earnings growing fast (39.7% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
130%
Turns 130% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
0.2%
Thin free cash flow (0.2%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.62
Elevated debt (1.62)
Interest Cover
8.08x
Comfortably covers interest (8.1x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
8.2x
Attractive valuation — P/E 8.2

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
-0.3
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
3.16%
Moderate income — 3.16% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+16.7%
Dividend growing fast (16.7% YoY)

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