Assured Guaranty

AGO

Insurance - Specialty · Financial Services

Price

$84.96

+0.79 (+0.94%)

Market Cap

$3.76B

Winston Score

Winston is curious

A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Share count falling — buybacks

−33.5% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 74.3M (2021) → 49.4M (2025)

Assured Guaranty is an insurance company that promises to pay bondholders if a bond issuer stops making payments. Its main customers are governments, cities, and other public entities that issue bonds to raise money for things like roads, schools, and utilities. The company is one of the few remaining financial guaranty insurers still active in the United States.

Assured Guaranty earns money by collecting insurance premiums from bond issuers in exchange for wrapping their bonds with a guarantee. It operates mainly in the U.S. municipal bond market but also insures some international infrastructure and structured finance deals. Its competitive position comes from being one of only a handful of companies with the financial strength and regulatory approvals to offer this type of guarantee, which creates a high barrier to entry. The key risk the company faces is a wave of municipal defaults, which could force large payouts and strain its capital reserves.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

2 trades / 12mo

0 Congressional buys and 2 sells on AGO in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-19.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-45.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (7%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

6.1%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$312M cash & investments

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Assured Guaranty's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

90.8%

Premium pricing power — 90.8% gross margin

Operating Margin

13.0%

Healthy — 13.0% operating margin

ROCE

0.5%

Weak — 0.5% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+3.0%

Slow sales growth (3.0% YoY)

EPS YoY

+0.6%

Flat earnings

Single-digit earnings growth — steady but not exciting.

EPS Consistency

4/8 quarters

Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

87%

Modest — 87% of profit becomes cash

FCF Margin

38.1%

Converts sales into free cash efficiently (38.1%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.31

Conservative — low debt load (0.31)

Interest Cover

5.25x

Adequate interest coverage (5.2x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

9.9x

Attractive valuation — P/E 9.9

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward

-1.9

SLOWING

Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

1.69%

Small dividend — 1.69% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth

+10.8%

Dividend growing fast (10.8% YoY)

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