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Azul S.A.

AZUL
29
Airlines, Airports & Air Services · Industrials
Price
$8.51
-0.14 (-1.62%)
Market Cap
$884.3M
Exchange
New York Stock Exchange
Winston Score
29
Winston is worried
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.
Data as of Aug 9, 2026 · filings through Mar 31, 2026

Share count falling — buybacks

100.0% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 115.2M (2021) → 3K (2025)

Azul S.A. is a Brazilian airline that flies passengers and cargo across Brazil and to select international destinations. It operates one of the largest route networks in Brazil, serving over 150 destinations including many smaller cities that larger rivals like LATAM and Gol do not reach. This focus on underserved markets has made Azul the only airline serving roughly half of the cities on its network.

Azul earns money primarily by selling plane tickets and charging for cargo shipments, with additional revenue from loyalty program partnerships and ancillary fees. It operates almost entirely within Brazil, making its finances closely tied to the Brazilian economy and the value of the Brazilian real against the US dollar — since aircraft leases and fuel are often priced in dollars. Heavy foreign currency debt is the company's biggest ongoing risk, as a weaker real can quickly raise costs and squeeze margins even when passenger demand remains strong.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-0.5% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

+179.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

1.0%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Runway

~3 years

$2.1B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

$2.1B cash & investments at current burn rate

Revenue declining

Azul S.A.'s revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
23.9%
Thin — 23.9% gross margin
Operating Margin
15.7%
Healthy — 15.7% operating margin
ROCE
10.1%
Below par — 10.1% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+6.6%
Slow sales growth (+6.6% YoY)
EPS YoY
N/A
Data not available
EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
-23%
Weak — only -23% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
-5.9%
Burning cash (-5.9%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
N/A
Data not available
Interest Cover
0.53x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.5x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
18.3x
Fair value — P/E 18.3

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+17.7
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (18.3 → 0.6)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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