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BAE Systems

BAESF
52
Aerospace & Defense · Industrials
Price
$25.40
+0.27 (+1.07%)
Market Cap
$74.46B
Exchange
Other OTC
Winston Score
52
Winston is curious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

5.6% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 3.21B (2021) → 3.03B (2025)

BAE Systems is a British defense company that builds weapons, military vehicles, warships, and electronic systems for governments and armed forces. Its customers are mostly national militaries, including those of the UK, United States, Australia, and Saudi Arabia. It is one of the largest defense contractors in the world and makes everything from fighter jet components to submarines to cybersecurity tools for governments.

BAE Systems earns money through long-term government contracts, which tend to last many years and provide steady, predictable revenue. The company operates primarily in the UK, US, and Australia, generating roughly £23 billion in annual sales. Its main competitive advantage is deep, long-standing relationships with governments that require security clearances and trusted supplier status — barriers that are very hard for new competitors to cross. The key growth driver is rising defense budgets across NATO countries, particularly following increased geopolitical tensions in Europe, though the company faces risk from government spending cuts or contract delays if political priorities shift.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+6.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+9.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

Declining (-100% vs prior year)

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

R&D spend declining — could signal cost-cutting or efficiency

Insider Activity

2.4%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$5.7B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

BAE Systems is growing revenue at 7% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
9.2%
Thin — 9.2% gross margin
Operating Margin
9.2%
Modest — 9.2% operating margin
ROCE
7.1%
Weak — 7.1% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+23.3%
Fast-growing sales (23.3% YoY)
EPS YoY
+17.9%
Earnings growing fast (17.9% YoY)

Healthy double-digit earnings growth — what compounders look like.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
178%
Turns 178% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
9.6%
Modest free cash flow (9.6%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.62
Moderate — manageable debt (0.62)
Interest Cover
5.25x
Adequate interest coverage (5.2x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
19.2x
Fair value — P/E 19.2

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+1.2
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.98%
Small dividend — 1.98% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+33.1%
Dividend growing fast (33.1% YoY)

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