BigBear.ai Holdings

BBAI

Information Technology Services · Technology

Price

$2.84

-0.08 (-2.74%)

Market Cap

$1.02B

Winston Score

Winston is worried

Weak fundamentals across most pillars.

Share count rising — dilution

+3253.0% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 107.0M (2021) → 3.59B (2025)

BigBear.ai is a technology company that builds artificial intelligence software for large organizations that need to make sense of huge amounts of data. Its main products help customers analyze information, spot patterns, and make faster decisions. The company focuses heavily on government and defense clients, including U.S. military and intelligence agencies.

The company earns revenue primarily through long-term government contracts and software licenses rather than selling physical products. It operates mainly in the United States, and its deep ties to the defense and intelligence community give it some protection from everyday commercial competitors. However, BigBear.ai is currently losing money — its operating margin is deeply negative — and it faces real risk from budget cuts in federal spending, intense competition from larger defense contractors like Palantir and Booz Allen Hamilton, and the ongoing challenge of scaling its business enough to reach profitability.

Winston Score History

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-37.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

+97.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

$17M/ year

↑ Rising (+54% vs prior year)

13.1% of revenue

In line with sector average (15%)

Investing heavily in future products and technology

Insider Activity

0.7%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~12 months

$87M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Adequate runway but may need to raise capital within 2 years

Revenue declining

BigBear.ai Holdings's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

20.3%

Thin — 20.3% gross margin

Operating Margin

-88.9%

Losing money on operations — -88.9%

ROCE

-3.8%

Weak — -3.8% return on capital

Negative ROIC means the business is losing money on every dollar invested in it.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-19.3%

Shrinking sales (-19.3% YoY)

EPS YoY

N/A

Data not available

EPS Consistency

2/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

N/A

Data not available

FCF Margin

-36.3%

Burning cash (-36.3%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.04

Conservative — low debt load (0.04)

Interest Cover

N/A

Data not available

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/M

Negative earnings — P/E not meaningful

P/E vs Forward

N/A

not available

Data not available

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.

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