BHP Group Limited

BHP

Industrial Materials · Basic Materials

Price

$80.64

-0.07 (-0.09%)

Market Cap

$204.85B

Exchange

New York Stock Exchange

Winston Score

Winston is curious

A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

BHP Group is one of the largest mining companies in the world. It digs up natural resources like iron ore, copper, and coal from the ground and sells them to manufacturers, steel mills, and energy companies. Iron ore and copper are its two biggest products, and it operates massive mines mainly in Australia and South America.

BHP makes money by selling these raw materials at market prices, which means its revenue rises and falls with global commodity prices. The company generates billions in annual revenue and has a strong competitive position because its mines are large, low-cost, and hard to replicate. BHP has been expanding its copper business, betting that demand will grow as the world builds more electric vehicles and power grids — but falling commodity prices or a slowdown in China, its largest customer for iron ore, remain the biggest risks to its earnings.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

7 trades / 12mo

3 Congressional buys and 4 sells on BHP in the last 12 months.

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Share count broadly stable

+0.3% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 2.53B (2021) → 2.54B (2025)

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin

126.1%

Premium pricing power — 126.1% gross margin

Operating Margin

39.6%

Excellent — 39.6% operating margin

ROCE

14.9%

Good — 14.9% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-6.9%

Shrinking sales (-6.9% YoY)

EPS YoY

-15.6%

Earnings shrinking (-15.6% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

2/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

184%

Turns 184% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

19.4%

Converts sales into free cash efficiently (19.4%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.45

Conservative — low debt load (0.45)

Interest Cover

23.93x

Comfortably covers interest (23.9x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

9.4x

Attractive valuation — P/E 9.4

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward

-7.6

SLOWING

Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

3.27%

Moderate income — 3.27% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth

-38.1%

Dividend cut (-38.1% YoY) — warning sign

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