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Brinker International

EAT
65
Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical
Winston Score
65
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Brinker International owns and operates casual dining restaurant chains, with Chili's Grill & Bar being its flagship brand. Chili's serves everyday American food — burgers, ribs, fajitas, and margaritas — to families and adults looking for a sit-down meal at a mid-range price. The company also operates Maggiano's Little Italy, a smaller chain of upscale Italian restaurants.

Brinker makes money primarily through food and drink sales at its restaurants, with locations spread across the United States and in about 25 other countries through a mix of company-owned and franchised restaurants. It operates roughly 1,200 Chili's locations in the U.S. alone, giving it significant scale and brand recognition in the casual dining segment. The main growth driver is Chili's recent push to win back value-focused customers through promotions like its "3 for Me" meal deal, though the business faces ongoing pressure from rising food and labor costs that can squeeze profit margins.

Winston Score History

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+3.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+10.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady EPS growth

Insider Activity

1.3%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$57M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

Brinker International is growing revenue at 3% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
19.2%
Thin — 19.2% gross margin
Operating Margin
11.5%
Modest — 11.5% operating margin
ROCE
22.4%
Exceptional — 22.4% return on capital

ROIC between 15% and 25%. Every dollar invested in the business earns 15 to 25 cents back per year.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+15.4%
Fast-growing sales (15.4% YoY)
EPS YoY
+50.0%
Earnings growing fast (50.0% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
8/8 quarters
Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
176%
Turns 176% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
9.9%
Modest free cash flow (9.9%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.85
Moderate — manageable debt (0.85)
Interest Cover
18.62x
Comfortably covers interest (18.6x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
18.1x
no trend
Fair value — P/E 18.1

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+6.1
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (18.1 → 12.0)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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