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Canadian National Railway Company

CNI
61
Railroads · Industrials
Exchange
New York Stock Exchange
Winston Score
61
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Canadian National Railway (CN) runs one of the largest railroad networks in North America. It moves freight — things like grain, oil, cars, lumber, and consumer goods — across Canada and into the United States. CN is the only railroad in North America that connects three coasts: the Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico.

CN makes money by charging companies to ship goods along its roughly 20,000-mile rail network. Most revenue comes from freight contracts with industries like agriculture, energy, and manufacturing. Its coast-to-coast network is hard to replicate, giving it a strong competitive position against trucks and rival railroads. The main growth driver is increasing trade volumes between Canada and the U.S., but the biggest risk is economic slowdown — when businesses produce and ship less, CN earns less. Fuel costs and labor negotiations are also ongoing pressure points for the business.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-0.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

+1.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

Insider Activity

2.6%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$588M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

→ Burn rate stable

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Canadian National Railway Company's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
42.8%
Healthy — 42.8% gross margin
Operating Margin
35.4%
Excellent — 35.4% operating margin
ROCE
3.5%
Weak — 3.5% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+0.5%
Nearly flat sales (0.5% YoY)
EPS YoY
+6.6%
Modest earnings growth (6.6% YoY)

Single-digit earnings growth — steady but not exciting.

EPS Consistency
8/8 quarters
Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
152%
Turns 152% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
20.7%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (20.7%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.03
Elevated debt (1.03)
Interest Cover
7.68x
Adequate interest coverage (7.7x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
16.4x
no trend
Fair value — P/E 16.4

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+3.9
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (16.4 → 12.5)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
2.09%
no trend
Moderate income — 2.09% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+5.1%
no trend
Dividend growing modestly (5.1% YoY)

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