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CarMax

KMX
28
Auto - Dealerships · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$57.33
-1.14 (-1.95%)
Market Cap
$8.14B
Winston Score
28
Winston is worried
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

10.6% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 165.2M (2022) → 147.6M (2026)

CarMax is the largest used-car retailer in the United States. It buys and sells used vehicles directly to everyday consumers, operating hundreds of physical dealerships across the country. The company is known for its no-haggle pricing model, meaning customers pay a set price rather than negotiating with a salesperson.

CarMax makes money primarily by selling used cars at a markup over what it paid for them, and it earns additional revenue from financing loans to customers through CarMax Auto Finance, plus fees from extended warranties and other add-on products. It operates roughly 240 locations across the U.S. and has built a loyalty advantage through its transparent buying experience and large inventory selection. However, the company is currently unprofitable at the operating level, and its biggest risk is its sensitivity to interest rates — when borrowing costs rise, fewer consumers can afford monthly car payments, which directly pressures both sales volume and loan profitability.

Winston Score History

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9 trades / 12mo

3 Congressional buys and 6 sells on KMX in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
9.3%
Thin — 9.3% gross margin
Operating Margin
-7.5%
Losing money on operations — -7.5%
ROCE
-3.9%
Weak — -3.9% return on capital

Negative ROIC means the business is losing money on every dollar invested in it.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-13.9%
Shrinking sales (-13.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
-73.8%
Earnings shrinking (-73.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
1286%
Turns 1286% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
4.5%
Thin free cash flow (4.5%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.47
Conservative — low debt load (0.47)
Interest Cover
0.43x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.4x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
65.1x
Expensive — P/E 65.1

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+45.2
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (65.1 → 20.0)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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