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Carrier Global Corporation

CARR
34
Industrial - Machinery · Industrials
Price
$68.69
-0.65 (-0.94%)
Market Cap
$57.05B
Winston Score
34
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

4.9% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 890.3M (2021) → 846.7M (2025)

Carrier Global makes heating, cooling, and refrigeration equipment. Its main products include air conditioners, heat pumps, and commercial refrigeration systems sold under the Carrier brand — one of the most recognized names in climate control. The company serves homeowners, commercial buildings, and industrial customers across the construction and infrastructure industries.

Carrier earns most of its revenue by selling equipment directly, with a growing portion coming from aftermarket services, parts, and maintenance contracts. It operates globally, with significant business in North America, Europe, and Asia, and generates roughly $22 billion in annual revenue. The company recently sharpened its focus on HVAC by selling its fire and security businesses, betting heavily on demand for energy-efficient heating and cooling systems. The key growth driver is the global push toward heat pumps and climate-friendly HVAC, but rising competition from lower-cost manufacturers and a slowdown in new construction activity remain meaningful risks.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

26 trades / 12mo

15 Congressional buys and 11 sells on CARR in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
23.3%
Thin — 23.3% gross margin
Operating Margin
4.8%
Thin — 4.8% operating margin
ROCE
1.0%
Weak — 1.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-1.9%
Shrinking sales (-1.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
-75.7%
Earnings shrinking (-75.7% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
158%
Turns 158% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
7.6%
Modest free cash flow (7.6%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.90
Moderate — manageable debt (0.90)
Interest Cover
5.51x
Adequate interest coverage (5.5x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
43.9x
Pricey — P/E 43.9

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+25.0
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (43.9 → 18.9)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.36%
Small dividend — 1.36% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+9.2%
Dividend growing modestly (9.2% YoY)

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