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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance

REFI
59
REIT - Mortgage · Real Estate
Price
$10.62
-0.23 (-2.12%)
Market Cap
$226.4M
Exchange
NASDAQ
Winston Score
59
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Share count rising — dilution

+22.8% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 17.5M (2021) → 21.4M (2025)

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate finance company in the United States. It originates, structures, and invests in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. The company offers senior loans to state-licensed operators and property owners in the cannabis industry. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+16.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-52.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

15.3%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$27.9B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 16%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
88.7%
Premium pricing power — 88.7% gross margin
Operating Margin
45.4%
Excellent — 45.4% operating margin
ROCE
0.0%
Weak — 0.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+9.0%
Steady sales growth (9.0% YoY)
EPS YoY
-24.0%
Earnings shrinking (-24.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
79%
Modest — 79% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
40.9%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (40.9%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.16
Conservative — low debt load (0.16)
Interest Cover
2.00x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (2.0x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
7.3x
Attractive valuation — P/E 7.3

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
+1.2
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
16.42%
Healthy income — 16.42% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth
-8.7%
Dividend cut (-8.7% YoY) — warning sign

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