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Chipotle Mexican Grill

CMG
54
Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical
Winston Score
54
Winston is curious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Chipotle Mexican Grill is a fast-casual restaurant chain that serves Mexican-style food like burritos, bowls, tacos, and quesadillas. Customers build their own meals from a short menu of fresh ingredients, and the chain targets everyday diners looking for a quick but higher-quality alternative to traditional fast food. Chipotle operates over 3,500 locations, mostly in the United States, making it one of the largest fast-casual chains in the country.

The company makes money primarily by selling food directly to customers in its restaurants, with a growing portion of sales coming through its digital ordering app and delivery partnerships. Chipotle's competitive edge comes from its simple menu, strong brand loyalty, and a well-known commitment to avoiding artificial ingredients. The main growth driver is continued new restaurant openings, particularly its smaller-format "Chipotlane" drive-thru locations, while its biggest risk is food cost inflation and any food safety incident, which has damaged the brand in the past.

Winston Score History

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+7.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

-20.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

Insider Activity

0.8%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$247M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

Chipotle Mexican Grill is growing revenue at 7% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
68.4%
Premium pricing power — 68.4% gross margin
Operating Margin
12.9%
Healthy — 12.9% operating margin
ROCE
14.6%
Good — 14.6% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+5.7%
Slow sales growth (5.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
-4.4%
Earnings shrinking (-4.4% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
152%
Turns 152% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
12.4%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (12.4%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.13
Conservative — low debt load (0.13)
Interest Cover
100.00x
Comfortably covers interest (100.0x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
33.6x
no trend
Pricey — P/E 33.6

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
+12.6
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (33.6 → 21.0)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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