Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Stock Analysis & Winston Score

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates as a racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated three pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues with approximately 3,050 historical racing machines (HRMs) in Kentucky; TwinSpires, an online wagering platform for horse racing, sports, and iGaming; nine retail sportsbooks; and casino

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

2 trades / 12mo

0 Congressional buys and 2 sells on CHDN in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+3.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+13.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady EPS growth

Insider Activity

5.6%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$200M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

Churchill Downs Incorporated is growing revenue at 3% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin

30.6%

Modest — 30.6% gross margin

Operating Margin

21.7%

Excellent — 21.7% operating margin

ROCE

2.4%

Weak — 2.4% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+5.8%

Slow sales growth (5.8% YoY)

EPS YoY

-3.9%

Earnings shrinking (-3.9% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency

4/8 quarters

Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

212%

Turns 212% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

17.5%

Converts sales into free cash efficiently (17.5%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

4.50

Heavy debt load (4.50)

Interest Cover

2.34x

Tight — interest eats into profit (2.3x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

15.3x

no trend

Fair value — P/E 15.3

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

+2.3

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

0.48%

no trend

Small dividend — 0.48% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth

-44.5%

no trend

Dividend cut (-44.5% YoY) — warning sign

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