ConocoPhillips

COP

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy

Price

$114.71

+1.87 (+1.66%)

Market Cap

$139.75B

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

−5.6% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 1.33B (2021) → 1.25B (2025)

ConocoPhillips finds oil and natural gas underground, pulls it out of the earth, and sells it to refineries and energy companies. Its main products are crude oil, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG). It is one of the largest independent oil and gas exploration and production companies in the world, meaning it does not own refineries or gas stations — just the drilling and extraction side.

The company makes money by selling the oil and gas it produces, so its revenue rises and falls with commodity prices. ConocoPhillips operates across the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway, Qatar, and several other countries, giving it a geographically diverse production base. Its large, low-cost asset portfolio — including major positions in the Permian Basin and Alaska — helps it stay profitable even when oil prices drop. The biggest risk the company faces is a sustained decline in global oil and gas prices, which would directly shrink its earnings and cash flow.

Winston Score History

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9 Congressional buys and 16 sells on COP in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-6.5% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-38.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$78M/ year

→ Flat (-4% vs prior year)

0.1% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Steady R&D investment year-over-year

Insider Activity

0.2%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$6.5B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

ConocoPhillips's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

Each metric is explained in plain language so you know exactly what you're looking at. Start your free trial now.

Quality

Gross Margin

19.6%

Thin — 19.6% gross margin

Operating Margin

15.1%

Healthy — 15.1% operating margin

ROCE

2.3%

Weak — 2.3% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+7.5%

Steady sales growth (7.5% YoY)

EPS YoY

-18.9%

Earnings shrinking (-18.9% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

2/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

248%

Turns 248% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

5.9%

Thin free cash flow (5.9%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.36

Conservative — low debt load (0.36)

Interest Cover

9.32x

Comfortably covers interest (9.3x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

18.1x

Fair value — P/E 18.1

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

+6.7

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (18.1 → 11.4)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

3.17%

Moderate income — 3.17% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth

+5.8%

Dividend growing modestly (5.8% YoY)

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