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Covenant Logistics Group

CVLG
34
Trucking · Industrials
Price
$47.34
-0.87 (-1.80%)
Market Cap
$1.19B
Winston Score
34
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

26.5% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 34.0M (2021) → 25.0M (2025)

Covenant Logistics Group is a trucking and transportation company based in Chattanooga, Tennessee. It moves freight — things like retail goods, food, and industrial products — across the United States for large shippers and retailers. The company operates several segments, including expedited trucking, dedicated contract services, and a managed freight brokerage business.

Covenant earns money by charging customers to haul loads, either through one-time spot contracts or longer-term dedicated agreements where a shipper reserves trucks exclusively for their use. It operates primarily in the U.S. and generates roughly $1 billion or more in annual revenue. The dedicated contract segment provides more predictable income than spot trucking, which swings sharply with freight demand cycles. The biggest risk the company faces is the broader trucking industry's sensitivity to economic slowdowns — when businesses ship less, rates fall and margins compress quickly, as reflected in the current low operating and return-on-capital figures.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+14.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-28.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

40.0%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$245M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

Covenant Logistics Group is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 14%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
8.4%
Thin — 8.4% gross margin
Operating Margin
2.2%
Thin — 2.2% operating margin
ROCE
1.0%
Weak — 1.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+7.1%
Steady sales growth (7.1% YoY)
EPS YoY
-87.8%
Earnings shrinking (-87.8% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
2311%
Turns 2311% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
-8.2%
Burning cash (-8.2%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.65
Moderate — manageable debt (0.65)
Interest Cover
1.48x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.5x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
263.0x
Expensive — P/E 263.0

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward
+237.5
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (263.0 → 25.5)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
0.66%
Small dividend — 0.66% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
-22.2%
Dividend cut (-22.2% YoY) — warning sign

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