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Crane NXT

CXT
51
Industrial - Machinery · Industrials
Price
$51.27
-0.77 (-1.48%)
Market Cap
$2.95B
Winston Score
51
Winston is curious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+2.3% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 56.7M (2021) → 58.0M (2025)

Crane NXT makes machines and technology that help businesses handle and verify money. Its core products include currency authentication systems, bill validators, and payment terminals used by banks, casinos, vending machine operators, and retail businesses. The company is one of the leading providers of counterfeit-detection technology used in paper currency handling around the world.

Crane NXT earns revenue by selling hardware, software, and related services to its customers, with a growing push toward recurring software and subscription-based revenue streams. It operates primarily in North America and Europe, with a market cap around $2.1 billion, and its moat comes from deep relationships with central banks and governments, plus the high cost of switching away from certified currency-authentication systems. The key growth driver is the expansion of its digital payment and identity verification products, though a long-term risk is the gradual global decline in cash usage, which could shrink demand for its core currency-handling equipment over time.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+17.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-71.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

Declining (-100% vs prior year)

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

R&D spend declining — could signal cost-cutting or efficiency

Insider Activity

13.7%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Runway

~2 years

$232M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

$232M cash & investments at current burn rate

Growth context

Crane NXT is growing revenue at 17% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
40.2%
Healthy — 40.2% gross margin
Operating Margin
9.2%
Modest — 9.2% operating margin
ROCE
1.3%
Weak — 1.3% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+14.0%
Fast-growing sales (14.0% YoY)
EPS YoY
-23.1%
Earnings shrinking (-23.1% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
190%
Turns 190% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
12.0%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (12.0%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.23
Elevated debt (1.23)
Interest Cover
8.10x
Comfortably covers interest (8.1x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
22.7x
Growth-priced — P/E 22.7

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
+12.0
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (22.7 → 10.7)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.54%
Small dividend — 1.54% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+6.1%
Dividend growing modestly (6.1% YoY)

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