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Deere & Company

DE
27
Agricultural - Machinery · Industrials
Price
$597.24
-1.73 (-0.29%)
Market Cap
$161.22B
Winston Score
27
Winston is worried
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

13.5% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 314.0M (2021) → 271.7M (2025)

Deere & Company makes the machines that farmers, construction crews, and landscapers use every day. Its most famous products are tractors, combines, and harvesters sold under the green-and-yellow John Deere brand — one of the most recognized names in agriculture worldwide. The company also makes excavators, bulldozers, and lawn equipment, serving customers from large commercial farms to small homeowners.

Deere earns money by selling and financing equipment, and it also charges for software and precision agriculture technology built into its machines. It operates globally, with especially strong sales in North America, South America, and Europe, and generates over $50 billion in annual revenue. Its main competitive advantage is brand loyalty combined with a large dealer network and proprietary technology that locks farmers into its ecosystem — but the business is sensitive to farm income cycles, so when crop prices fall and farmers cut spending, Deere's sales tend to drop alongside them.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

16 trades / 12mo

6 Congressional buys and 10 sells on DE in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+16.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-24.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$2.3B/ year

Flat (+1% vs prior year)

5.2% of revenue

In line with sector average (4%)

Steady R&D investment year-over-year

Insider Activity

0.2%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~13 months

$6.8B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Adequate runway but may need to raise capital within 2 years

Growth context

Deere & Company is growing revenue at 16% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
34.7%
Modest — 34.7% gross margin
Operating Margin
16.2%
Healthy — 16.2% operating margin
ROCE
1.8%
Weak — 1.8% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-2.0%
Shrinking sales (-2.0% YoY)
EPS YoY
-21.5%
Earnings shrinking (-21.5% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
160%
Turns 160% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
7.8%
Modest free cash flow (7.8%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
2.38
Heavy debt load (2.38)
Interest Cover
2.78x
Tight — interest eats into profit (2.8x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
33.6x
Pricey — P/E 33.6

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
-1.5
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.02%
Small dividend — 1.02% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+2.4%
Dividend flat

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