Dollar Tree

DLTR

Discount Stores · Consumer Defensive

Price

$125.94

-2.51 (-1.95%)

Market Cap

$24.20B

Exchange

NASDAQ

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

−9.9% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 229.0M (2022) → 206.3M (2026)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softl

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

19 trades / 12mo

7 Congressional buys and 12 sells on DLTR in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+9.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+114.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (2%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.3%ownership

↓ Declining

Insider ownership declining — could be dilution or selling

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$718M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

Dollar Tree is growing revenue at 9% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin

39.2%

Modest — 39.2% gross margin

Operating Margin

12.3%

Healthy — 12.3% operating margin

ROCE

8.0%

Below par — 8.0% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-30.0%

Shrinking sales (-30.0% YoY)

EPS YoY

N/A

Data not available

EPS Consistency

6/8 quarters

Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

N/A

Data not available

FCF Margin

10.8%

Modest free cash flow (10.8%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

1.23

Elevated debt (1.23)

Interest Cover

19.53x

Comfortably covers interest (19.5x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

19.4x

Fair value — P/E 19.4

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

+4.7

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (19.4 → 14.7)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.

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