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Dream Finders Homes

DFH
29
Residential Construction · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$15.84
-0.68 (-4.12%)
Market Cap
$1.47B
Winston Score
29
Winston is worried
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count rising — dilution

+9.5% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 92.5M (2021) → 101.3M (2025)

Dream Finders Homes builds and sells new single-family homes across the United States. The company targets first-time buyers and move-up buyers, offering homes in planned communities mostly in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas. It operates under several regional brands and focuses on faster-growing Sun Belt markets where population growth has been strong.

The company makes money by selling completed homes, typically collecting payment at closing. Dream Finders uses an "asset-light" model, meaning it controls land through options and contracts rather than buying it outright, which reduces the cash it needs to tie up in land. It operates across roughly a dozen states and competes against both large national builders and smaller regional ones. The main risk is interest rate sensitivity — when mortgage rates rise, fewer buyers can afford new homes, which can slow sales and pressure margins. Gross margins near 16% leave limited cushion if home prices soften or construction costs rise.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

3 trades / 12mo

1 Congressional buy and 2 sells on DFH in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
14.6%
Thin — 14.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
2.2%
Thin — 2.2% operating margin
ROCE
0.6%
Weak — 0.6% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-8.5%
Shrinking sales (-8.5% YoY)
EPS YoY
-45.2%
Earnings shrinking (-45.2% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
-60%
Weak — only -60% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
-3.2%
Burning cash (-3.2%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.21
Elevated debt (1.21)
Interest Cover
100.00x
Comfortably covers interest (100.0x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
8.4x
Attractive valuation — P/E 8.4

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
-4.1
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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