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Emergent BioSolutions

EBS
28
Biotechnology · Healthcare
Price
$7.63
-0.06 (-0.78%)
Market Cap
$393.7M
Winston Score
28
Winston is worried
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count rising — dilution

+4.8% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 54.1M (2021) → 56.7M (2025)

Emergent BioSolutions makes vaccines and medicines that protect people from biological threats like anthrax, smallpox, and opioid overdoses. Its most well-known products include BioThrax, the only FDA-approved anthrax vaccine in the United States, and Narcan, a nasal spray that reverses opioid overdoses. The company's main customers are government agencies, including the U.S. Department of Defense and the Strategic National Stockpile.

Emergent earns most of its revenue by selling these products directly to governments under long-term contracts, which provides some stability but also heavy dependence on a small number of buyers. The company operates primarily in the United States and also offers contract manufacturing services to other drugmakers. Emergent has faced serious challenges in recent years, including manufacturing problems and the loss of key contracts, which contributed to its negative return on invested capital and a much smaller business than it once was. Its ability to win new government contracts and stabilize its manufacturing operations will determine whether the company can recover.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-29.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-89.6% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$54M/ year

Declining (-24% vs prior year)

7.2% of revenue

Below sector average (18%)

R&D spend declining — could signal cost-cutting or efficiency

Insider Activity

5.6%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~13 months

$160M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Adequate runway but may need to raise capital within 2 years

Revenue declining

Emergent BioSolutions's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
43.3%
Healthy — 43.3% gross margin
Operating Margin
6.7%
Modest — 6.7% operating margin
ROCE
1.0%
Weak — 1.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-29.9%
Shrinking sales (-29.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
N/A
Data not available
EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
N/A
Data not available
FCF Margin
20.0%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (20.0%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.10
Elevated debt (1.10)
Interest Cover
1.28x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.3x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/M
Negative earnings — P/E not meaningful
P/E vs Forward
N/A
not available
Data not available

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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