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Ecopetrol S.A.

EC
38
Oil & Gas Integrated · Energy
Price
$16.09
+0.29 (+1.84%)
Market Cap
$33.08B
Exchange
New York Stock Exchange
Winston Score
38
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Ecopetrol is Colombia's national oil and gas company, owned mostly by the Colombian government. It finds, produces, refines, and sells crude oil, natural gas, and fuel products. It is the largest company in Colombia and one of the biggest oil producers in Latin America.

Ecopetrol makes most of its money by selling crude oil and refined fuels, with additional revenue from natural gas and petrochemicals. It operates mainly in Colombia but also has assets in the United States, Brazil, and other parts of Latin America, generating roughly $25–30 billion in annual revenue. Its biggest competitive advantage is its government backing and control of Colombia's key pipelines and refining infrastructure, which are hard for rivals to replicate. The main risk the company faces is its heavy dependence on oil prices — when crude prices fall, profits drop sharply — along with Colombia's ongoing push to reduce fossil fuel dependence over the long term.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-9.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-8.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.0%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$59.7T cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Ecopetrol S.A.'s revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Share count broadly stable

0.2% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 2.06B (2021) → 2.05B (2025)

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
38.8%
Modest — 38.8% gross margin
Operating Margin
29.9%
Excellent — 29.9% operating margin
ROCE
4.5%
Weak — 4.5% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-12.8%
Shrinking sales (-12.8% YoY)
EPS YoY
-38.0%
Earnings shrinking (-38.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
335%
Turns 335% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
14.5%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (14.5%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.36
Elevated debt (1.36)
Interest Cover
3.87x
Tight — interest eats into profit (3.9x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
0.0x
Attractive valuation — P/E 0.0

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
+0.0
GROWING
Earnings roughly flat

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
4.42%
Healthy income — 4.42% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend Growth
-33.2%
Dividend cut (-33.2% YoY) — warning sign

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