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Elastic N.V.

ESTC
43
Software - Application · Technology
Price
$61.59
-0.52 (-0.84%)
Market Cap
$6.40B
Winston Score
43
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+15.9% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 92.5M (2022) → 107.2M (2026)

Elastic N.V. makes software that helps companies search, analyze, and make sense of large amounts of data. Its core product is the Elastic Stack — a set of tools built around a search engine called Elasticsearch — used by businesses to monitor their computer systems, detect security threats, and search through their own data. Customers include large enterprises, government agencies, and cloud-based businesses across many industries.

Elastic earns money primarily through subscriptions to its cloud-hosted service, Elastic Cloud, as well as licenses for its software. The company operates globally, with customers in North America, Europe, and Asia, and generates roughly $1.4 billion in annual revenue. Its main competitive advantage is that Elasticsearch is one of the most widely used search and data tools in the world, giving it a large base of developers who already know the product. The key risk is stiff competition from large cloud providers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, which offer similar search and data tools bundled into their own platforms.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

3 trades / 12mo

1 Congressional buy and 2 sells on ESTC in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+17.7% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

+146.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

$452M/ year

Rising (+24% vs prior year)

26.0% of revenue

1.7x the sector average (15%)

Investing heavily in future products and technology

Insider Activity

13.9%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$741M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Heavy R&D investment

Elastic N.V. is putting 26% of revenue into R&D and that number is rising. That's 1.7x the sector average. And they're generating enough cash to self-fund it.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
76.3%
Premium pricing power — 76.3% gross margin
Operating Margin
0.1%
Thin — 0.1% operating margin
ROCE
0.0%
Weak — 0.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+13.9%
Fast-growing sales (13.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
-183.4%
Earnings shrinking (-183.4% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
N/A
Data not available
FCF Margin
14.6%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (14.6%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.73
Moderate — manageable debt (0.73)
Interest Cover
N/A
Data not available

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
17.6x
Fair value — P/E 17.6

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+2.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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