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Federal Agricultural Mortgage

AGM
44
Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services
Price
$205.50
-0.73 (-0.35%)
Market Cap
$2.24B
Winston Score
44
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+1.3% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 10.8M (2021) → 11.0M (2025)

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, known as Farmer Mac, is a government-sponsored enterprise that helps funnel money into rural America. It buys agricultural loans and rural infrastructure loans from banks and lenders, freeing those lenders up to make more loans to farmers, ranchers, and rural utilities. Congress created Farmer Mac in 1988, making it one of the few federally chartered secondary market institutions focused specifically on agricultural credit.

Farmer Mac makes money by holding a portfolio of loans and loan guarantees, earning the spread between what it pays to borrow money and what it earns on those assets. It operates exclusively in the United States, serving agricultural lenders, rural electric cooperatives, and farm credit institutions across the country. Its government-sponsored status gives it a funding cost advantage that private competitors cannot easily replicate. The main risk is exposure to falling farmland values or a broad agricultural downturn, which could increase loan defaults and pressure the portfolio's credit quality.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
24.7%
Thin — 24.7% gross margin
Operating Margin
16.9%
Healthy — 16.9% operating margin
ROCE
0.2%
Weak — 0.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-15.5%
Shrinking sales (-15.5% YoY)
EPS YoY
+6.9%
Modest earnings growth (6.9% YoY)

Single-digit earnings growth — steady but not exciting.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
102%
Turns 102% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
16.4%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (16.4%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
20.10
Heavy debt load (20.10)
Interest Cover
0.24x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.2x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
11.8x
Attractive valuation — P/E 11.8

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+1.5
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
3.09%
Moderate income — 3.09% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+6.9%
Dividend growing modestly (6.9% YoY)

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