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Ferguson

FERG
47
Industrial - Distribution · Industrials
Price
$232.02
-2.08 (-0.89%)
Market Cap
$45.00B
Winston Score
47
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

11.4% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 224.8M (2021) → 199.2M (2025)

Ferguson is a large distributor of plumbing and HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) supplies. It sells pipes, valves, fittings, water heaters, and related products to professional contractors, builders, and industrial customers — not to everyday shoppers. It is the largest wholesale distributor of plumbing products in the United States.

Ferguson makes money by buying products from manufacturers and reselling them at a markup through its network of branches and online ordering systems. It operates primarily in the United States, with a smaller presence in Canada, and generates roughly $29 billion in annual revenue. Its competitive advantage comes from its massive branch network and deep supplier relationships, which are hard for smaller rivals to replicate. The main risk is that its business is closely tied to construction activity — when housing starts and commercial building slow down, demand for Ferguson's products tends to fall as well.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

9 trades / 12mo

2 Congressional buys and 7 sells on FERG in the last 12 months.

Unlock the full Smart Money Map — every trade plotted on the price chart with politicians, amounts and returns since each trade. Founder's Deal is $57/mo locked for life.

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-2.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

+2.9% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.2%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$820M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Ferguson's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
31.0%
Modest — 31.0% gross margin
Operating Margin
8.2%
Modest — 8.2% operating margin
ROCE
6.1%
Weak — 6.1% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+4.7%
Slow sales growth (4.7% YoY)
EPS YoY
+31.6%
Earnings growing fast (31.6% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
8/8 quarters
Every recent quarter grew earnings vs last year

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
60%
Weak — only 60% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
2.9%
Thin free cash flow (2.9%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.70
Moderate — manageable debt (0.70)
Interest Cover
15.37x
Comfortably covers interest (15.4x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
22.0x
Growth-priced — P/E 22.0

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
+5.3
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (22.0 → 16.6)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.52%
Small dividend — 1.52% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+6.7%
Dividend growing modestly (6.7% YoY)

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