First Watch Restaurant Group

FWRG

Restaurants · Consumer Cyclical

Price

$12.45

+0.27 (+2.22%)

Market Cap

$767.5M

Exchange

NASDAQ

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+30.3% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 48.2M (2021) → 62.8M (2025)

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 341 company-owned restaurants and 94 franchised restaurants in 28 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

3 trades / 12mo

2 Congressional buys and 1 sell on FWRG in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+17.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

-222.1% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

2.3%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$24M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

First Watch Restaurant Group is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 17%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

12.8%

Thin — 12.8% gross margin

Operating Margin

0.8%

Thin — 0.8% operating margin

ROCE

0.2%

Weak — 0.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+20.4%

Fast-growing sales (20.4% YoY)

EPS YoY

+64.2%

Earnings growing fast (64.2% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency

4/8 quarters

Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

798%

Turns 798% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

-0.7%

Burning cash (-0.7%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

1.21

Elevated debt (1.21)

Interest Cover

1.63x

Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.6x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

43.0x

Pricey — P/E 43.0

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward

+7.6

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (43.0 → 35.4)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.

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