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Five Point Holdings

FPH
26
Real Estate - Development · Real Estate
Price
$5.24
-0.13 (-2.42%)
Market Cap
$369.3M
Winston Score
26
Winston is worried
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count rising — dilution

+121.5% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 67.4M (2021) → 149.3M (2025)

Five Point Holdings is a real estate developer that builds large, master-planned communities in California. These are entire neighborhoods — with homes, shops, parks, and schools — built from the ground up on big pieces of land. The company sells land parcels to homebuilders, who then construct the actual houses. Its three main projects are located in Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Francisco's Bay Area.

Five Point makes money by selling finished land to homebuilders and collecting management fees. It operates entirely in California, making it a small, geographically concentrated company with a market cap around $300 million. Its main competitive advantage is owning large, entitled land positions in one of the most supply-constrained housing markets in the country — getting government approval for new land in California is extremely difficult and takes years. The biggest risk the company faces is its dependence on California's housing market, where high interest rates and slow homebuilder demand can stall land sales and push the company into operating losses.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+3.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

-109.4% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (1%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

28.4%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~22 months

$334M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Adequate runway but may need to raise capital within 2 years

Growth context

Five Point Holdings is growing revenue at 3% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
24.9%
Thin — 24.9% gross margin
Operating Margin
-71.0%
Losing money on operations — -71.0%
ROCE
-0.7%
Weak — -0.7% return on capital

Negative ROIC means the business is losing money on every dollar invested in it.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-54.2%
Shrinking sales (-54.2% YoY)
EPS YoY
-49.4%
Earnings shrinking (-49.4% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
9%
Weak — only 9% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
3.5%
Thin free cash flow (3.5%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.55
Conservative — low debt load (0.55)
Interest Cover
N/A
Data not available

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
8.1x
Attractive valuation — P/E 8.1

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
-57.1
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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