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Flowers Foods

FLO
42
Packaged Foods · Consumer Defensive
Price
$8.49
-0.16 (-1.85%)
Market Cap
$1.80B
Winston Score
42
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Flowers Foods makes bread, buns, rolls, and snack cakes that you find in grocery stores and restaurants across the United States. Its most well-known brands include Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, and Wonder Bread, which it sells to supermarkets, mass retailers, foodservice companies, and convenience stores. It is one of the largest packaged bread companies in the country.

The company earns money by selling its baked goods wholesale to retailers and distributors, who then stock them on store shelves. Flowers Foods operates almost entirely in the United States and generates roughly $5 billion in annual revenue. Its competitive edge comes from strong regional distribution networks and recognizable brand names, though it faces constant pressure from store-brand (private label) products that are cheaper for shoppers. Rising ingredient and transportation costs are an ongoing risk, and the company's ability to raise prices without losing customers will be a key factor in protecting its thin operating margins going forward.

Winston Score History

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Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue data limited

EPS Growth

YoY Growth Rate

EPS data limited

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (2%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

7.8%ownership

Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$12M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Share count broadly stable

0.4% over 5y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 213.0M (2021) → 212.1M (2026)

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
45.4%
Healthy — 45.4% gross margin
Operating Margin
5.6%
Thin — 5.6% operating margin
ROCE
2.0%
Weak — 2.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+3.0%
Nearly flat sales (3.0% YoY)
EPS YoY
-66.1%
Earnings shrinking (-66.1% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
544%
Turns 544% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
6.3%
Modest free cash flow (6.3%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.60
Elevated debt (1.60)
Interest Cover
4.33x
Adequate interest coverage (4.3x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
21.2x
Growth-priced — P/E 21.2

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
+11.5
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (21.2 → 9.7)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
10.74%
Healthy income — 10.74% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth
-10.3%
Dividend cut (-10.3% YoY) — warning sign

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