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Gerdau S.A.

GGB
52
Steel · Basic Materials
Price
$4.68
-0.04 (-0.85%)
Market Cap
$9.31B
Exchange
New York Stock Exchange
Winston Score
52
Winston is curious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count rising — dilution

+12.4% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 1.79B (2021) → 2.01B (2025)

Gerdau is one of the largest steel producers in the Americas. It makes long steel products like rebar, wire rod, and structural beams, which are used in construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure projects. Its main customers are construction companies, automakers, and industrial manufacturers across North and South America.

Gerdau earns money by selling steel products directly to businesses, with prices tied closely to raw material costs like scrap metal and iron ore. The company operates mills in Brazil, the United States, Canada, and several other countries, generating roughly $14–15 billion in annual revenue. Its competitive edge comes partly from its large network of scrap-based electric arc furnace mills in the U.S., which can be more cost-efficient than traditional blast furnace steelmaking. The key risk Gerdau faces is steel price volatility — when construction activity slows or global steel supply rises, margins can compress quickly, as reflected in its currently thin operating margins.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-3.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

+37.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (3%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

36.5%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$9.5B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Gerdau S.A.'s revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
13.7%
Thin — 13.7% gross margin
Operating Margin
10.5%
Modest — 10.5% operating margin
ROCE
2.6%
Weak — 2.6% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+1.5%
Nearly flat sales (1.5% YoY)
EPS YoY
-67.3%
Earnings shrinking (-67.3% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
524%
Turns 524% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
3.5%
Thin free cash flow (3.5%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.26
Conservative — low debt load (0.26)
Interest Cover
4.44x
Adequate interest coverage (4.4x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
5.8x
Attractive valuation — P/E 5.8

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
+4.2
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (5.8 → 1.6)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
2.83%
Moderate income — 2.83% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+15.8%
Dividend growing fast (15.8% YoY)

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