Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) Stock Analysis & Winston Score

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company. It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are, in most cases, sponsored by private equity investors. It typically invests in diversified consumer services, automobiles, healthcare technology, insurance, health care equipment and supplies, hotels, restaurants and leisure, healthcare providers and s

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

2 trades / 12mo

2 Congressional buys and 0 sells on GBDC in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-8.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-160.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

Insider Activity

1.3%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$128M cash & investments

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue declining

Golub Capital BDC's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

77.6%

Premium pricing power — 77.6% gross margin

Operating Margin

9.8%

Modest — 9.8% operating margin

ROCE

0.2%

Weak — 0.2% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+17.8%

Fast-growing sales (17.8% YoY)

EPS YoY

-32.0%

Earnings shrinking (-32.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

2/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

136%

Turns 136% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

39.7%

Converts sales into free cash efficiently (39.7%)

Free cash flow margin above 20%. Out of every $100 in sales, more than $20 is real cash they keep.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

1.25

Elevated debt (1.25)

Interest Cover

1.56x

Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.6x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

16.9x

no trend

Fair value — P/E 16.9

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

+7.5

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (16.9 → 9.5)

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

11.09%

no trend

Healthy income — 11.09% yield

Yield above 6% — often a flag the market is pricing in a cut.

Dividend Growth

+14.3%

no trend

Dividend growing fast (14.3% YoY)

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