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Graphic Packaging Holding Company

GPK
31
Packaging & Containers · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$10.82
-0.31 (-2.79%)
Market Cap
$3.20B
Winston Score
31
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Graphic Packaging makes the cardboard boxes and cartons that hold everyday products like cereal, frozen food, beverages, and fast food. Its main customers are large consumer goods companies and food brands that need packaging made from paperboard, which is a thick type of cardboard. The company is one of the largest paperboard packaging manufacturers in North America.

Graphic Packaging earns money by selling packaging materials and finished cartons directly to manufacturers and food companies under long-term supply contracts. It operates mainly in North America but also has facilities in Europe and other regions, with roughly $9 billion in annual revenue. The company's scale and vertical integration — meaning it makes its own paperboard and then converts it into finished packaging — help keep costs lower than smaller rivals, but rising input costs for fiber and energy, along with slowing consumer spending, remain the key risks to its profit margins.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

18 trades / 12mo

13 Congressional buys and 5 sells on GPK in the last 12 months.

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Share count broadly stable

0.3% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 297.9M (2021) → 296.9M (2025)

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
14.1%
Thin — 14.1% gross margin
Operating Margin
4.0%
Thin — 4.0% operating margin
ROCE
1.0%
Weak — 1.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-0.2%
Shrinking sales (-0.2% YoY)
EPS YoY
-54.6%
Earnings shrinking (-54.6% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
334%
Turns 334% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
1.8%
Thin free cash flow (1.8%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
1.77
Elevated debt (1.77)
Interest Cover
3.05x
Tight — interest eats into profit (3.0x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
11.6x
Attractive valuation — P/E 11.6

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+2.5
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
4.06%
Healthy income — 4.06% yield

Generous yield. Worth checking whether the payout is sustainable.

Dividend Growth
+4.8%
Dividend growing modestly (4.8% YoY)

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