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Green Brick Partners

GRBK
42
Residential Construction · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$72.75
-2.44 (-3.25%)
Market Cap
$3.14B
Winston Score
42
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

14.0% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 51.1M (2021) → 43.9M (2025)

Green Brick Partners builds and sells new homes in the United States. The company targets entry-level and move-up buyers, selling homes through its own brands like Trophy Signature Homes and CB JENI Homes. It operates mainly in fast-growing Sun Belt markets, with a heavy focus on Texas and Georgia.

Green Brick makes money by building homes and selling them directly to buyers, so revenue comes in when a home closes. The company is mid-sized with a roughly $3 billion market cap, and it controls much of its own land supply, which helps protect margins compared to builders that rely more on outside developers. Its main growth driver is continued population growth in its Sun Belt markets, but rising mortgage interest rates are a persistent risk because higher borrowing costs can quickly reduce how many buyers can afford a new home.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
29.0%
Modest — 29.0% gross margin
Operating Margin
17.9%
Healthy — 17.9% operating margin
ROCE
3.8%
Weak — 3.8% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-6.6%
Shrinking sales (-6.6% YoY)
EPS YoY
-18.0%
Earnings shrinking (-18.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
67%
Modest — 67% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
9.7%
Modest free cash flow (9.7%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.14
Conservative — low debt load (0.14)
Interest Cover
100.00x
Comfortably covers interest (100.0x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
10.7x
Attractive valuation — P/E 10.7

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
-2.9
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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