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Green Plains

GPRE
40
Chemicals - Specialty · Basic Materials
Also trades as: 0J0P.L
Price
$15.24
+0.59 (+4.03%)
Market Cap
$1.07B
Exchange
NASDAQ
Winston Score
40
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.
Data as of Aug 10, 2026 · filings through Jun 30, 2026

Share count rising — dilution

+44.7% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 46.7M (2021) → 67.5M (2025)

Green Plains Inc. is one of the largest ethanol producers in the United States. It turns corn into ethanol, a fuel that gets blended into gasoline at gas stations across the country. The company also produces distillers grains and corn oil as byproducts, which are sold as animal feed and ingredients to livestock farmers and food producers.

Green Plains earns money by selling ethanol, animal feed ingredients, and corn oil, mostly to fuel blenders, agricultural companies, and food manufacturers. It operates a network of ethanol plants primarily in the Midwest, where corn is cheaply and abundantly available. The company has been investing in high-protein animal feed technology to move beyond basic ethanol and improve its thin profit margins. The main risk is that ethanol margins are heavily tied to the spread between corn prices and fuel prices, making earnings volatile and difficult to predict.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
25.3%
Modest — 25.3% gross margin
Operating Margin
15.2%
Healthy — 15.2% operating margin
ROCE
5.0%
Weak — 5.0% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-23.3%
Shrinking sales (-23.3% YoY)
EPS YoY
N/A
Data not available
EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
85%
Modest — 85% of profit becomes cash
FCF Margin
3.9%
Thin free cash flow (3.9%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.56
Conservative — low debt load (0.56)
Interest Cover
1.80x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.8x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
8.5x
Attractive valuation — P/E 8.5

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward
+0.2
GROWING
Earnings roughly flat

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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