Greenfire Resources (GFR) Stock Analysis & Winston Score

Greenfire Resources is a Canadian oil company that pulls a thick, heavy type of oil called bitumen out of the ground in Alberta, Canada. It uses a drilling method called Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD), which pumps steam underground to loosen the bitumen so it can flow to the surface. The company sells this oil to refineries, mostly in North America, that can process heavy crude.

Greenfire makes money by selling the bitumen it produces, so its revenue rises and falls with oil prices. It operates entirely in Alberta's oil sands region, making it a small, single-geography producer with a market cap around $400 million. The oil sands have high upfront costs and require a lot of energy to operate, which squeezes margins when oil prices drop. The biggest risk the company faces is its heavy reliance on one commodity in one location, leaving it highly exposed to swings in crude oil prices and pipeline access constraints.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-43.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-560.9% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

Insider Activity

73.2%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~0 months

$543,617 cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Short runway — potential dilution ahead through share issuance

Cash watch

Greenfire Resources has less than a year of cash at its current burn rate. Growth investors should watch for potential share dilution from future fundraising — that directly reduces your ownership.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

8.8%

Thin — 8.8% gross margin

Operating Margin

4.9%

Thin — 4.9% operating margin

ROCE

0.5%

Weak — 0.5% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-35.0%

Shrinking sales (-35.0% YoY)

EPS YoY

-123.0%

Earnings shrinking (-123.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

2/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

N/A

Data not available

FCF Margin

-6.1%

Burning cash (-6.1%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.00

Conservative — low debt load (0.00)

Interest Cover

1.49x

Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.5x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

N/M

no trend

Negative earnings — P/E not meaningful

P/E vs Forward

N/A

not available

Data not available

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.

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