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Heineken N.V. logo

Heineken N.V.

HEINY
45
Beverages - Alcoholic · Consumer Defensive
Price
$43.89
-0.12 (-0.27%)
Market Cap
$48.78B
Exchange
Other OTC
Winston Score
45
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

3.3% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 1.15B (2021) → 1.11B (2025)

Heineken N.V. is a Dutch company that makes and sells beer. Its flagship Heineken lager is one of the most recognized beer brands in the world, and it also owns hundreds of other brands including Amstel, Dos Equis, Tiger, and Strongbow cider. The company sells to bars, restaurants, grocery stores, and individual consumers across the globe.

Heineken earns money by brewing and selling beer and other alcoholic drinks, charging more for its premium brands than for local or budget options. It operates in over 190 countries, making it one of the two or three largest beer companies in the world by volume. Its wide brand portfolio and deep distribution network in both developed and emerging markets give it a durable competitive position. The key growth opportunity is rising beer consumption in Africa and Southeast Asia, while the main risk is slowing alcohol consumption trends in Western markets and rising input costs like barley and energy.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
36.7%
Modest — 36.7% gross margin
Operating Margin
13.5%
Healthy — 13.5% operating margin
ROCE
5.5%
Weak — 5.5% return on capital

ROIC between 5% and 15%. They earn 5 to 15 cents back per year on every dollar invested.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-0.9%
Shrinking sales (-0.9% YoY)
EPS YoY
-41.4%
Earnings shrinking (-41.4% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
0/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
371%
Turns 371% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
10.1%
Modest free cash flow (10.1%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.99
Moderate — manageable debt (0.99)
Interest Cover
5.55x
Adequate interest coverage (5.5x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
17.2x
Fair value — P/E 17.2

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
+2.6
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow — slightly cheaper on forward P/E

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
2.51%
Moderate income — 2.51% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+14.8%
Dividend growing fast (14.8% YoY)

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