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Herc Holdings

HRI
31
Rental & Leasing Services · Industrials
Price
$149.47
-3.67 (-2.40%)
Market Cap
$4.99B
Winston Score
31
Winston is serious
Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count rising — dilution

+3.3% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 30.4M (2021) → 31.4M (2025)

Herc Holdings rents heavy equipment to construction companies, industrial facilities, and government projects across North America. Its fleet includes cranes, forklifts, aerial work platforms, earthmoving machines, and general tools. The company operates under the Herc Rentals brand and is one of the largest equipment rental companies in the United States.

Herc makes money by charging customers daily, weekly, or monthly rental fees instead of selling equipment outright. This model means customers avoid the high upfront cost of buying machines they may only need temporarily. The company operates roughly 400 branches across the U.S. and Canada, generating around $3 billion in annual revenue. Its competitive position relies on fleet size, branch density, and long-term relationships with large contractors. The main risk is that rental demand is closely tied to construction activity and industrial spending, both of which slow sharply during economic downturns, which could pressure utilization rates and pricing power.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+32.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue accelerating

EPS Growth

-14.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

13.2%ownership

Insiders own a meaningful stake in the company

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$43M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Revenue accelerating

Herc Holdings grew revenue 32% year-over-year and the growth rate is speeding up. That's the kind of momentum growth investors look for — the question is whether margins can follow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin
28.6%
Modest — 28.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
15.4%
Healthy — 15.4% operating margin
ROCE
1.8%
Weak — 1.8% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+28.4%
Fast-growing sales (28.4% YoY)
EPS YoY
-106.0%
Earnings shrinking (-106.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency
2/8 quarters
Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
N/A
Data not available
FCF Margin
3.2%
Thin free cash flow (3.2%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
4.26
Heavy debt load (4.26)
Interest Cover
1.58x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (1.6x)

Interest coverage between 1 and 3. Profits cover interest, but with little room to spare.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
N/A
Data not available
P/E vs Forward
N/A
not available
Data not available

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
1.81%
Small dividend — 1.81% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth
+2.6%
Dividend flat

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