Hilltop Holdings

HTH

Banks - Regional · Financial Services

Price

$38.68

-0.73 (-1.85%)

Market Cap

$2.26B

Winston Score

Winston is curious

Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Share count falling — buybacks

−22.7% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 81.2M (2021) → 62.7M (2025)

Hilltop Holdings is a Texas-based financial services company that operates across three main businesses: a regional bank, a mortgage origination business, and a broker-dealer. Its banking arm, PlainsCapital Bank, serves individuals and businesses primarily in Texas. The broker-dealer unit, Hilltop Securities, helps governments and municipalities raise money by issuing bonds.

The company earns money through interest on loans, fees from mortgage originations, and commissions from its securities business. It operates mainly in the United States, with a heavy concentration in Texas, and generates roughly $2.2 billion in market value. Its main competitive edge is the combination of banking, mortgage, and public finance services under one roof, which creates multiple revenue streams. The biggest risk is that rising interest rates and a slower housing market can sharply reduce mortgage origination volume, which has already pressured that segment in recent years.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

-8.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Revenue declining

EPS Growth

-1.5% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Earnings declining

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (7%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

32.7%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Runway

~20 months

$874M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↓ Burn rate worsening

Adequate runway but may need to raise capital within 2 years

Revenue declining

Hilltop Holdings's revenue is actually shrinking. In a growth stock, that removes the core investment thesis. The low Winston Score here may be warranted — unless there's a turnaround story.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

80.2%

Premium pricing power — 80.2% gross margin

Operating Margin

13.5%

Healthy — 13.5% operating margin

ROCE

1.5%

Weak — 1.5% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+2.3%

Nearly flat sales (2.3% YoY)

EPS YoY

+34.0%

Earnings growing fast (34.0% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency

6/8 quarters

Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

-77%

Weak — only -77% of profit becomes cash

FCF Margin

-9.2%

Burning cash (-9.2%)

Free cash flow is negative. They are burning cash, not generating it.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.56

Conservative — low debt load (0.56)

Interest Cover

0.65x

Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.7x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

14.7x

Attractive valuation — P/E 14.7

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

-1.7

SLOWING

Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

1.96%

Small dividend — 1.96% yield

Modest yield. The bulk of any return needs to come from price appreciation.

Dividend Growth

+8.6%

Dividend growing modestly (8.6% YoY)

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