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Hilton Grand Vacations

HGV
55
Travel Lodging · Consumer Cyclical
Price
$49.94
-1.47 (-2.86%)
Market Cap
$3.92B
Winston Score
55
Winston is curious
A decent business — some strong pillars, some weaker.

Share count falling — buybacks

9.5% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 101.1M (2021) → 91.5M (2025)

Hilton Grand Vacations sells vacation ownership, also known as timeshares. Customers buy the right to use resort properties for a set number of nights each year, typically at beach or mountain destinations across the United States, Hawaii, Japan, and Europe. The company operates under the Hilton brand name and is one of the largest timeshare companies in the country.

The company makes money in two main ways: selling timeshare packages upfront and collecting ongoing fees from owners for maintenance and club membership. It also earns income from financing purchases, since many buyers take out loans directly through the company. Hilton Grand Vacations generates roughly $3.5 billion in annual revenue and benefits from a large base of existing owners who pay recurring fees. The main risk is that timeshare sales slow sharply during economic downturns, as consumers pull back on big discretionary purchases, and the company carries a meaningful debt load from its 2021 acquisition of Diamond Resorts.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+11.9% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

+550.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

EPS growth accelerating

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

18.0%ownership

Declining

Insider ownership declining — could be dilution or selling

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$552M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

→ Burn rate stable

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

Hilton Grand Vacations is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 12%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
54.0%
Healthy — 54.0% gross margin
Operating Margin
12.1%
Healthy — 12.1% operating margin
ROCE
1.8%
Weak — 1.8% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
+4.2%
Slow sales growth (4.2% YoY)
EPS YoY
+44.9%
Earnings growing fast (44.9% YoY)

Earnings growing 25%+ a year. The compounder zone.

EPS Consistency
6/8 quarters
Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
196%
Turns 196% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
6.3%
Modest free cash flow (6.3%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
6.11
Heavy debt load (6.11)
Interest Cover
0.81x
Dangerous — barely covers interest (0.8x)

Interest coverage below 1. Their profits don't cover the interest bill.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)
22.1x
Growth-priced — P/E 22.1

P/E above the market average. People are paying up for expected growth.

P/E vs Forward
+12.4
GROWING
Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (22.1 → 9.7)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.
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