Harley-Davidson

HOG

Auto - Recreational Vehicles · Consumer Cyclical

Price

$26.58

-0.23 (-0.86%)

Market Cap

$2.80B

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count falling — buybacks

−21.8% over 4y

The company has reduced its share count over this period, returning value to shareholders through buybacks.

Diluted shares outstanding: 155.0M (2021) → 121.3M (2025)

Harley-Davidson makes motorcycles. It is one of the most recognized motorcycle brands in the world, selling heavyweight bikes to adult riders, mostly in the United States. The company also sells related parts, accessories, and branded merchandise like clothing and helmets.

Harley makes money by selling motorcycles and parts directly through a network of dealerships. It also runs a financial services arm that offers loans to customers buying its bikes. Most revenue comes from North America, though the company sells in Europe and Asia too. Its main competitive advantage is brand loyalty — many Harley riders identify strongly with the brand and buy repeatedly. The biggest risk the company faces is its aging core customer base. Younger riders have shown less interest in large, expensive motorcycles, and Harley has struggled to grow sales with new generations despite efforts like its LiveWire electric motorcycle brand.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

8 trades / 12mo

6 Congressional buys and 2 sells on HOG in the last 12 months.

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Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin

29.5%

Modest — 29.5% gross margin

Operating Margin

3.9%

Thin — 3.9% operating margin

ROCE

0.9%

Weak — 0.9% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

-9.8%

Shrinking sales (-9.8% YoY)

EPS YoY

-33.0%

Earnings shrinking (-33.0% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

2/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

87%

Modest — 87% of profit becomes cash

FCF Margin

1.0%

Thin free cash flow (1.0%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.70

Moderate — manageable debt (0.70)

Interest Cover

9.44x

Comfortably covers interest (9.4x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

14.7x

Attractive valuation — P/E 14.7

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward

-46.7

SLOWING

Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

2.94%

Moderate income — 2.94% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth

+4.3%

Dividend growing modestly (4.3% YoY)

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