Holmen AB (publ) logo

Holmen AB (publ)

HOLM-A.ST
46
Paper, Lumber & Forest Products · Basic Materials
Price
kr 305.00
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Market Cap
kr 47.37B
Exchange
Stockholm Stock Exchange
Winston Score
46
Winston looking serious
Winston is serious
Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Winston Score between 40 and 70. The stock passes some quality checks but not all.

Holmen AB is a Swedish forest products company that owns and manages large areas of forest land in Sweden and sells wood-based products. Its main businesses include paper for printing and packaging, paperboard used in food and consumer goods packaging, and sawn timber sold to construction and furniture makers. Holmen is one of the larger integrated forest companies in the Nordic region, meaning it controls its own raw material supply from forest to finished product.

The company earns revenue by selling physical goods — paper, paperboard, and wood products — primarily to customers in Europe. Owning roughly one million hectares of forest in Sweden gives Holmen a meaningful cost advantage over competitors who must buy timber on the open market. However, the business is exposed to cyclical swings in paper and timber demand, as well as long-term structural decline in graphic paper volumes as print media shrinks. Growth in renewable packaging materials and timber for construction could partially offset that pressure over time.

Winston Score History

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin
3.6%
Thin — 3.6% gross margin
Operating Margin
11.6%
Modest — 11.6% operating margin
ROCE
1.0%
Weak — 1.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY
-6.3%
Shrinking sales (-6.3% YoY)
EPS YoY
-2.0%
Earnings shrinking (-2.0% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency
4/8 quarters
Earnings inconsistent quarter-to-quarter

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion
157%
Turns 157% of profit into real cash
FCF Margin
12.2%
Converts sales into free cash efficiently (12.2%)

FCF margin between 10% and 20%. Every $100 in sales becomes $10 to $20 in real cash.

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Stability

Debt / Equity
0.11
Conservative — low debt load (0.11)
Interest Cover
16.54x
Comfortably covers interest (16.5x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio
18.0x
Fair value — P/E 18.0

P/E in the normal range. Price is roughly $15 for every $1 of yearly profit.

P/E vs Forward
-0.6
SLOWING
Earnings expected to fall — forward P/E higher than today

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Dividends

Dividend Yield
3.02%
Moderate income — 3.02% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth
+50.8%
Dividend growing fast (50.8% YoY)

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